Approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs Hinges on Outcome of US Presidential Elections, Eric Balchunas Analyzes
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, has recently commented on the likelihood of the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. He has shifted his forecast to December 2025, indicating a significant delay. According to Balchunas, a crucial factor in this process will be the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections.
Balchunas suggests that former President Donald Trump might be a more favorable candidate for the cryptocurrency community. Should Trump win the presidential elections in the US, a change in leadership at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected. This change could potentially influence the approval process for spot Ethereum ETFs, as reported by DL News.
In his comments to the publication, Balchunas noted that the SEC is likely to reject applications after the final deadline in late May 2024. According to his evaluation, these funds are unlikely to enter the market before the end of 2025.
The analyst explained his forecast by pointing out the lack of visible dialogue between ETF providers and the Commission. This observation has also been noted by other experts, whose opinions have been covered previously.
Following the rejection of applications by the SEC, major companies such as BlackRock, Ark Invest, and Fidelity Investments might file lawsuits against the SEC, following the example of Grayscale Investments, added Balchunas.
This discussion also touches on the victory of a company in a lawsuit against the SEC concerning the conversion of a Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF, a case that has been extensively analyzed before. Balchunas is confident that the presidential elections in the USA are a significant variable in this process.
"If we have a new president, you might try to apply again. Maybe it will be approved. Otherwise, you will turn to the courts, but that could take a whole year," he said.
However, the expert rates the likelihood of such an outcome as low. Balchunas pointed out that Grayscale Investments is unlikely to sue the SEC again. He also noted that major ETF providers are "scared" by the SEC.
While noting that Trump is hardly a staunch advocate for the crypto-assets sector, Balchunas still considers him to be a better option for the industry compared to Biden.
Previously, it was reported that Hayden Adams, the founder of the Uniswap project, urged the current US president to change his stance towards crypto-assets.
